Senegal’s home fuel reserves will be primarily used to supply electricity. Authorities expect that home fuel infrastructure initiatives will come on-line between 2025 and 2026, offered there is no delay. The monetization of those vital power assets is on the foundation of the government’s new gas-to-power ambitions.
In this context, the worldwide technology group Wärtsilä carried out in-depth research that analyse the financial impact of the various gas-to-power strategies obtainable to Senegal. Two very completely different applied sciences are competing to fulfill the country’s gas-to-power ambitions: Combined-cycle gas turbines (CCGT) and Gas engines (ICE).
These research have revealed very significant system cost variations between the 2 main gas-to-power technologies the country is presently considering. Contrary to prevailing beliefs, gasoline engines are in reality much better suited than mixed cycle fuel generators to harness power from Senegal’s new gasoline sources cost-effectively, the research reveals. Total price differences between the two technologies could attain as much as 480 million USD until 2035 depending on scenarios.
Two competing and very totally different technologies
The state-of-the-art energy combine fashions developed by Wärtsilä, which builds customised power eventualities to identify the fee optimum approach to ship new technology capability for a specific country, reveals that ICE and CCGT technologies current vital value variations for the gas-to-power newbuild program running to 2035.
Although these two applied sciences are equally proven and dependable, they are very totally different in terms of the profiles in which they can function. CCGT is a know-how that has been developed for the interconnected European electrical energy markets, where it could perform at 90% load issue always. On the other hand, versatile ICE expertise can operate efficiently in all operating profiles, and seamlessly adapt itself to any other era technologies that may make up the country’s vitality mix.
In specific our examine reveals that when working in an electricity network of limited size such as Senegal’s 1GW national grid, counting on CCGTs to significantly increase the network capacity can be extremely pricey in all attainable eventualities.
Cost differences between the technologies are defined by numerous components. First of all, scorching climates negatively influence the output of gasoline turbines more than it does that of gasoline engines.
Secondly, because of Senegal’s anticipated entry to low-cost domestic gas, the operating costs become much less impactful than the funding costs. In other phrases, because low fuel costs decrease working costs, it’s financially sound for the country to depend on ICE power crops, which are less expensive to build.
Technology modularity additionally plays a key function. Senegal is predicted to require an extra 60-80 MW of era capability annually to have the power to meet the rising demand. This is much lower than the capability of typical CCGTs plants which averages 300-400 MW that must be in-built one go, resulting in pointless expenditure. Engine energy crops, on the other hand, are modular, which means they are often built precisely as and when the nation wants them, and additional prolonged when required.
The numbers at play are important. The mannequin exhibits that If Senegal chooses to favour CCGT vegetation at the expense of ICE-gas, it will result in as a lot as 240 million dollars of extra cost for the system by 2035. The price difference between the applied sciences may even improve to 350 million USD in favor of ICE technology if Senegal also chooses to construct new renewable energy capability inside the subsequent decade.
Risk-managing potential fuel infrastructure delays
The improvement of gasoline infrastructure is a fancy and prolonged endeavour. Program delays usually are not uncommon, causing gas supply disruptions that will have a huge financial impression on the operation of CCGT plants.
Nigeria is conscious of something about that. Only last year, significant fuel supply issues have caused shutdowns at a few of the country’s largest gasoline turbine energy crops. Because Gas turbines function on a steady combustion course of, they require a constant provide of gas and a secure dispatched load to generate constant energy output. If the supply is disrupted, shutdowns happen, putting a fantastic pressure on the general system. ICE-Gas crops however, are designed to regulate their operational profile over time and improve system flexibility. Because of their flexible working profile, they had been capable of preserve a a lot larger level of availability
The study took a deep dive to analyse the monetary influence of 2 years delay in the fuel infrastructure program. It demonstrates that if the country decides to speculate into gas engines, the price of gas delay can be 550 million dollars, whereas a system dominated by CCGTs would result in a staggering 770 million dollars in additional price.
Whichever method you have a glance at it, new ICE-Gas technology capability will decrease the whole value of electrical energy in Senegal in all possible situations. If Senegal is to meet electrical energy demand growth in a cost-optimal means, a minimal of 300 MW of latest ICE-Gas capability shall be required by 2026.
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